Tag Archives: MTG

A No Good Very Bad Sale Day and “Gleb”

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Value of a Collection

I’ve been actively participating in the Magic the Gathering finance community for some time.  There are multiple ways that individuals value their trades or collections for that matter.  One of the key things to think about when getting rid of a collection is what the counter party uses for a value system.  Most likely they will not have the same mindset as you.  For example, I have yet to meet someone who buys large collections at TCG mid.  It just does not happen, and maybe it is just a Minnesota thing or I am not using all avenues available to me.  So keeping the above in mind I will continue to talk about an experience I had last week with a buyer named Gleb.

My Value

The way I value my collection is at TCG Mid, for rares and mythics.  I also believe it can be a little inflated, and to keep a complete up to date list is a huge pain.  I literally have an excel spreadsheet with every card that’s rare or better that I have collected.  This spreadsheet does not include rares from older formats like stronghold, even though I have those cards.  It also does not contain other cards of value like any foils aside again from rares and mythics.  Lastly, it does not contain non bulk commons that are valuable like Spell Pierce.

Keeping everything in mind my collection contains roughly 900+ unique cards, and roughly 3,000 rares and mythics.  The average worth of those cards, not weighted mind you is roughly $2, and that average doesn’t include the foil pricing.  Again, this is all TCG Mid.

Here was/is the ad I placed on craigslist.

http://minneapolis.craigslist.org/hnp/clt/5086773740.html

 

Collection Listing CL

I wanted to start at $6250 to only attract the correct buyers.  The other reason, why I even considered selling my collection, granted I DO NOT plan to stop playing, is to help pay for my upcoming wedding.

Selling, Trading and Ebay Pricing

Actively selling and trading a lot over the years, I look at moving this collection as two fold.  One I would like to maximize what I can get, and two I know I will have to take a discount.  The counterparty needs to have a perceived value on their end to be enticed to buy the collection.  Again, I wanted to attract the correct types of buyers.

With that said I think I learned a very valuable lesson trying to move my collection.  DO NOT ever contact people that have “I buy your collections of MTG cards” or “I pay the most for MTG cards” unless you need to fire sale. I spent about two weeks talking to several buyers trying to work stuff out.

It is an extremely painful process to be honest.  You already know someone is going to try and nickel and dime you on everything.  They want to feel better about their purchase, I get it…again I said I planned on selling at somewhat of a discount.  .

One of the buyers I contacted lived quite a ways away and looked very promising at first.  I buy and sell cards all the time on ebay so I am pretty versed with the pricing and discounts there.  I begin talking to this guy who’s a few hours outside of the twin cities that says he buys at Ebay pricing.  Cool, I get it and he is transparent on how he values collections.  Knowing that he’s at a decent discount to TCG Mid, I figure okay take about 25% off the top.  I can deal with that, because I think 20% is fair if the person isn’t going to go and turn around selling everything right away.  He did tell me that he was a collector.  Granted I really don’t believe anyone on craigslist.

I continue to talk with him.  He then asks for some of my top worth cards.  I shoot him a few fetchlands and Angus Mackenzie.  I want to see where he comes in.  He tells me he takes a two week average of pricing, shoots me a fetchland that is tcg mid $15, and tells me its $8 on Ebay.

Okay, hold on a minute.  I sell fetchs on Ebay, and definitely sell them for more.  If you didn’t know this about Ebay you can actually view recently sold cards.  To do this you search your card, example wooded foothills.  Then on the left column you scroll down and click the show only completed listings.

ebay navigation

At the time of writing this you can see several wooded foothills sell above $8.

recently sold wooded foothills

I quickly responded with a buy it now that had sold for $15 on a wooded foothill. I said that his pricing wasn’t fair, and that I definitely understood his pricing metric.  However, the problem was he left way too much leeway in it to make the pricing more of an opinion.

Last helpful hint is that there is a website that helps calculate an average price on Ebay.  I find it extremely useful, and hope that you can as well.

http://www.thepricegeek.com/

On to the next buyer!

Gleb and Ettiquette

Recently Travis Allan @Wizardbumpin wrote an article for MTGprice on etiquette.  I was extremely satisfied that other members of the community find this to be extremely pertinent to playing MTG as well as conducting sales and trades.  I also want to reemphasize that this is very important, and that you should always try and not be a “Gleb”.

In walks Gleb, and in reality it started off as a very promising email string.  Gleb another local buyer to the Twin Cities, I had contacted through craigslist.  He asked me what warranted such a high price tag, and I presumably said to keep the real players interested and weed out the nonsense.  He asked for my rares/mythics and I sent him my entire sheet.  This guy was definitely interested in the collection, and wanted to know when we could meet.

First, off I have a rather large collection as stated, and I was selling everything.  I did not want to parse stuff out because I find that you can make better margins when getting rid of your own collection.  From a buyers perspective you typically don’t take everything because it means more work, but it depends on the person.  Anyway I tell Gleb that he can come over to my humble adobe to check the cards out.  He refused and offered a local Starbucks.  I agreed understanding that maybe I am some creep from his perspective, and a public area is usually the best.  My concern again was the size of my collection.

I had asked what I need to bring to get to an offer for everything.  He replied with everything I bring.  Okay, so I was excited the night before meeting this guy, thinking this is going to go great and that I will get a little extra cash for my wedding.  It took me roughly over an hour to pack my little car full of magic cards.  However, I knew it was worth it because I know soon these will all be Glebs.  Man was I ever wrong.

As I got to Starbucks he texted me saying he was already there.  Cool, I wasn’t going to bring all the cards in so I just walked in proceeding to look for him.  I figured he would be standing near the line or door waiting to introduce himself.  Wrong again.  He was sitting rather very calm and collected sipping on a frappe in the middle of starbucks with a backpack and his laptop unfolded.  Great…he didn’t even wait for me or offer if I wanted to get something.   I actually became very uncomfortable around Gleb, and this isn’t something typical of an extrovert who does consulting.  He had a very weird vibe.

Anyway I told Gleb that my collection was outside in my car, and that I would rather not bring everything in.  I have everything extremely organized and laid out very efficiently, and figured this could go smooth at least.  As I begin to walk outside calm collected Gleb with his frappe follows me out.  I proceed to unlock my car, open all the doors, and the trunk to showcase the MTG goods.  This is where I really start to get annoyed about his etiquette.

He immediately starts opening my boxes and pulling all my cards out that were neatly organized before I can explain each box.  Maybe I am a little anal, but I like stuff orderly so I can find it, and it helps me keep inventory.  He immediately starts saying bulk, bulk, bulk, and starts laying into the boxes.  He eventually makes it to one that I have some foils and says well these are all bulk as well.  I said, I haven’t parsed any foils out and that there’s a foil wooded foothills along with Whisperwood in there.

Now, the horror ensues, as he drops all the foils on the pavement like a klutz. Then proceeds to say that he hadn’t seen any rares.  I quickly respond with they are in my backpack up front, and that I was trying to explain the collection to him before he started tearing through everything.  He quickly tells me to grab the backpack and head in to price the collection.

Dear god sir, I sent you the list! You had all week to price it out, I had no patience to wait around two hours to get nickeled and dimed especially after not offering me a Frappe! However, the best part was the proceeding statement he makes while walking to the door.  “For the record for six thousand cash there better be twenty thousand dollars’ worth of value.”  I go, ah what.  This completely blindsided me based off our proceeding weeks email discussion, and text messaging.  Why in god’s name would this tool waste my time like that?  He’s telling me that he pays 25% value.  There is no way I am going to waste my time with this shark. It would have been much better if he had been wearing the “Left Shark” costume from the Super bowl because that would of probably made for a better story.

I never made it back in to Starbucks to get my Frappe.  I immediately told Gleb that I do not think things will work out, shook his hand, made sure he didn’t jack any of my foils he dropped on the ground, and closed up shop.  I was fuming the whole way home for wasting time with this guy.  However, I figured it would at least make for a good blog, as I was trying to find the good in what went down.

Moral of the story, DO NOT work with idiot buy listers on craigslist, they are sharks.  Also, anyone in Minnesota, beware of Gleb, and for everyone else, please don’t be a “Gleb” and use proper etiquette.

Welcome to the Other Side of the Coin

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In a small velvet bag alongside my EDH deck boxes, there lies a scratched brass coin, about the size of a quarter, with a smooth and narrow edge that glints a bit when it flips through the air. At first glance it seems undeserving of such an exalted position, being none too flashy and not even a coin you could spend in a vending machine. But sometimes coins mean more than what they’re worth, and sometimes cards mean more than what they do.

This is my all-time favorite coin. A goblin coin. The almighty dollar of Krenko, Mob Boss.

On its heads side, Krenko’s face in profile. Fleshy bulb of a nose protruding to the right; reaching left, the oversized mockery of an elvish ear. A single piggy eye, thick sausage lips, canine teeth bared in a sneer. He’s the boss, he KNOWS he’s the boss, and his goblin mob had better recognize.

On its tails side… a butt.

Far less grandiose, even crude. Nothing fancy, just the outline of buttocks with gangly legs dangling down. This is because goblins are crude, and butts are funny. If you call heads on this coin and lose, it literally moons your ill-fortune. Plus, I’ve found that people love to call “butts” when I toss it. I mean, they LOVE it. There’s goblin impulse in all of us, apparently.

As you may already know, most coin-flip cards in Magic’s history are goblin-related, including the amazing “flip two and ignore one” legendary artifact called Krark’s Thumb. Lots of those cards found a home with Krenko. But that’s only about half of what makes this coin my favorite. For the other half, let’s take a look at some flavor text.

That’s right. Flavor text. We’re going full Vorthos on this one. This little gem comes right off of Krenko himself.

“He displays a perverse charisma fueled by avarice. Highly dangerous. Recommend civil sanctions.” -Agmand Sarv, Azorius hussar

Fueled by avarice.

Avarice is greed for wealth. A lot of the time, that means a greed for coin.

The guy talking in this flavor text is an Azorius hussar, a blue-white knight/policeman in the ecumenopolis (city-world) that we all know and love: Ravnica.

Ravnica’s kind of like the New York of the Multiverse, the biggest city anyone has seen or can name, a skyline the size of a plane. If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere. You might knock Krenko’s methods, but it’s safe to say, he’s made it. That’s why other goblins rally around him; that’s why the police say he’s “highly dangerous.” And that’s why he’s rolling in the dough.

You know he’s rolling in the dough because his followers are motivated by money too. He finds the money he needs to pay his mob, gets ’em paid, attracts more 1/1 scrubs who wanna make it big in Ravnica just like he did. And the cycle continues.

He finds so many supporters that they double every turn. HE finds them. No littering matrons. No endless warrens to empty a la Time Spiral. This is a pyramid scheme, and our man Krenko sits atop its pinnacle, turning your average Foundry Street Denizen‘s daily routine into “Get Rich or Die Tryin’.” That “perverse charisma”? It takes a lot of legwork.

And who’s the guy telling us all about him? Some random court hussar.

I think that’s the part of all this I love the best. Krenko doesn’t feel the need to justify himself. Explaining things is the guilds’ job, and they’re not even very good at it. He’s a one-color Warrior in a two-color world. If anyone has a problem with that, he’ll whack ’em. Towering over other Goblins at 3/3, born into a world defined by guilds, Krenko’s individual personality looms larger than life.

Krenko’s flavor text might’ve been a story that Wizards told, but the coin shows an extrapolation I made. Magic is the game I love best, not just because it’s mechanically interesting (though it IS), but because of the stories any player can tell with it. Magic becomes the game that you – the player! – most want it to be.

My name is Emily, and this is the story I’ve told of a streetwise young tough named Krenko. I tell you this story so you can get a sense of me, of what kind of player I am. I’d love to hear your stories in return.

Tune in every Wednesday afternoon for The Other Side of the Coin, brimming with flavor text and narratives galore. There might even be some price specs and deck techs along the way. We’ll be diving right into the thick of things, with a snippet of flavor text so recognizable that R&D felt compelled to make a card out of it. Leave your guesses below!

Just remember: Sometimes coins mean more than what they’re worth. Sometimes cards mean more than what they do.

See you guys next time.

 

Conjured Currency Arbitrage

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Recently, I have read several articles by people and their ability to pick up magic cards at steep discount in their travels.  Today my plan is to show you how you can deliver big returns by using the power of the dollar in your favor no matter where you are.  You can even take out the flight cost.

One thing Magic Financiers tend to overlook is how opaque the magic market actually is.  Everything is about information, and when it comes to speculation you sure as hell better be informed.  I think being informed is the easy part,

the difficult part is getting that information immediately when trying to execute a trade or a decision regarding your cards.  There are certain standards everyone tends to use.  I’m pretty sure I’ve only traded with one person at my local game shop (lgs) who did not use tcgplayer mid.  Personally I prefer this because it’s more fun to trade.

When it comes to trading what really matters is economies of scale.  According to Wikipedia: In microeconomics, economies of scale are the cost advantages that enterprises obtain due to size, output, or scale of operation, with cost per unit of output generally decreasing with increasing scale as fixed costs are spread out over more units of output.  As an individual we each have our own markets that we participate in.  Some examples would include your LGS, Ebay, PucaTrade.  How do you move your cards and at what cost?  Different markets have a different cost.

So, how does one take advantage of information?  I’m going to show you how to take full advantage of your hard earned US Dollar.  Just like a magic card your dollar is a commodity, and it holds a relative value.  The differences of these items, and in which market can cause for a large spread in pricing.  Think of a magic card as a derivative, its price is floating due to supply and demand.  The same thing happens with your dollar relative to other currencies like the Yen.  This creates arbitrage opportunities.

At the time of writing your one USD is worth 119.63 Yen. The next step is to find Japanese stores who ship overseas and sell online.  The one I use for this example is Hareruyamtg.  Next, you need to compare apples to apples.  In my calculations I take the relative cost in local yen of the same MTG cards in English.  Yes, we could do this for Japanese cards if we wanted. Knowing each of the legs of the calculation what we will come out with is a USD price on an English card.  In my example I use MTGprice.com as my pricing data (I like an index for pricing).

After all my calculations I was able to identify five out of 12 cards that were great opportunities to build in paper value if purchased today.  If executed correctly a real return with a bang for your buck. Those cards were End Hostilities, Clever Impersonator, Hardened Scales, Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker, and everyone’s favorite Siege Rhino.  Of the five I would probably purchase Clever Impersonator, Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker, and Siege Rhino if I was to execute the trade today because they had the best margin.

Card Name MTG Price USD Hareruyamtg (JPY) Hare (USD Conversion) Difference
End Hostilities (Eng) 1.7 200 1.671821449 0.028178551
Ashcloud Phoenix (Eng) 3.93 700 5.851375073 -1.92137507
Clever Impersonator (Eng) 3.27 300 2.507732174 0.762267826
Hardened Scales (Eng) 0.91 60 0.501546435 0.408453565
Sarkhan, the Dragon Speaker (Eng) 11.73 1300 10.86683942 0.863160578
Siege Rhino (Eng) 8.39 800 6.687285798 1.702714202
Sorin, Solemn Visitor (Eng) 13.6 1700 14.21048232 -0.61048232
Bloodstained Mire (Eng) 9.61 1300 10.86683942 -1.25683942
Flooded Strand (Eng) 15.01 1800 15.04639305 -0.03639305
Polluted Delta (Eng) 14.16 1800 15.04639305 -0.88639305
Windswept Heath (Eng) 11.01 1400 11.70275015 -0.69275015
Wooded Foothills (Eng) 10.67 1500 12.53866087 -1.86866087

What about shipping costs you ask?  I even calculated all of those as well.  Surprisingly at a per card basis it’s really not that expensive.  Again doing all the calculations and conversions I came out at an added cost of $.15 USD at the high end and obviously going back to the economy of scale $.05 per card.

There is definitely arbitrage opportunity here for a trader to create a lot of value for themselves.  Yes, arbitrage is a guaranteed return, it would all come down to your execution.  Do you have the economies of scale to do the transaction, and do you have enough outlets to move your product?  Only you can answer that question for yourself.

Hopefully you have enjoyed my article, please feel free to contact me with questions and feel free to provide comments.

Value of Goals in Speculation

Setting Goals

A very important tool is the ability to set good goals.  Fundamentally, setting goals helps adhere to a certain strategy or theory.  For instance, there has been speculation that of all the tribes in the current Khans block Sultai will be have the highest ceiling when future blocks are taken into consideration.  This would be cause to buy up cards or develop a deck around those colors in preparation for future releases.  This is an example of a speculative play.

Now what does the above speculation have to do with goals? Well first and foremost goals help to establish a benchmark upon which progress can track success or failure.  In the case of the Sultai Speculation it is believed that Sultai cards are currently undervalued relative to the other tribes.  This would be tested by developing a price sheet for the different tribes to value their speculation as the future blocks are released, with the goal to yield the highest value of return.  Ultimately all goals represent a metric which in my opinion is the single most important part of a goal.  Once a goal is established it will also help provide focus, and feedback for speculation

Focus your mind’s eye

Something often overlooked when it comes to Magic in general is a focus.  Players have decks for everything! I mean most players have a Commander, Modern, and Standard deck.  That is three different areas a player needs to split their focus, and understand the different interactions and card mechanics.  This involves a lot of play time and research into the history of Magic.  This lends itself to a much unfocused player, and possibly weakening gameplay.  Would it best to be a generalist and win some or be specialized and win more?  I’m not saying that the above is bad, and many players have been around with the game for a long time.  It’s all about the play style, and the more that is taken could potential reduce and inhibit a player.

With the focus around the Sultai clan as a slice of Khans it is possible to develop a greater understanding and positioning relative to other players in the Khans block.  Rewards could be either financial or increased skill of in-depth card mechanics.  I highly recommend writing down your goal and what your focus is on.

Reflective Feedback

Writing a goal down also creates a channel for reflective feedback.  Feedback can be measured qualitatively or quantitatively.  The closer to real time the more it will help navigate the current atmosphere by adjustment or staying true to the course.

Reflecting on the Sultai example here are some outlined feedback questions:

  • Time Line: Does the current timeline allow for adjustments to be made to game play or financial strategy? Is this an achievable goal, and is there ample time to measure skill or realize financial value?
  • Focus:
    • Standard: Is Standard a narrow game type choice for Magic? Is even Standard too broad, and should it just be Standard Draft vs Constructed?
    • Sultai: Is Sultai enough of a narrower focus? How is Sultai performing relative to its peers in current block? How does Sultai perform financially and in game format?
  • Valuation: Is there a financial gain or loss that can be accounted for? Are game mechanics and knowledge improved? Was time well spent or used?

Each item above can be measured.  First and foremost is timeline.  Timeline helps holding/buying/game play style through the releases of Fate Reforged and Dragons of Tarkir. A timeline also enhances goals by providing a life cycle and stages to mark their success.  It’s very possible that Sultai really sucks during this time frame, but with a timeline it helps improve future decision making. Sultai may also be a very profitable clan to play in this block.  Even though everything is hindsight there is something measurable, and analysis can be performed against the goal.

Focus will enable you to hone your skills and potentially become an expert at a local game shop or in the greater magic community.  Analysis can be performed on trades, and can be catered to varying play styles. Is now a good time to buy or trade Sultai cards like Sidisi, Brood Tyrant? Who knows, but at the very least, there is focus, and research that has been a part of the trade decision.  Even thoughtful hints, tips, or tricks.  Another thing impacted will be a further understanding of the Sultai card mechanics.  Does Sidisi, Brood Tyrant create a zombie token for each creature milled? Or is it per trigger no matter how many creatures? (Per trigger) These overlooked mechanics may help put a twist on value and on game play that has yet to be recognized creating an edge in a market.

Lastly, how can a goal be valued?  One of the easiest values will be financial.  Sidisi, Brood Tyrant purchased at today’s price of $3, and then pops back to eight dollars with Fate Reforged. How many copies were purchased and sold for a financial gain of $5?  An often overlooked value is the knowledge gained on Sultai and gaming mechanics.  Qualitative knowledge should increase about the game interactions and the Sultai clan. This could *possibly* provide an edge for the next year with Khans still in rotation.  Maybe, the Sultai clan deck is pummeling all the other decks at the tournaments and allowing for financial capitalization.

At the end of the day no matter the timeline, feedback, and valuation there are many lines of speculation that can be identified and turned into goals.  Ultimately it will improve game play and possibly lead to some financial gains.