Tag Archives: MTG Finance

PucaTrade Case Resolution POV

PucaTrade Case Resolution POV

Being an avid Pucatrader I am always interested in Pucatrades new features and processes. Recently they released a new “Flash of Insight” addressing Case Resolution Automation (https://pucatrade.com/blog/2015/case_resolution_automation). I wanted to take a deeper look at what this means from a member’s perspective with some personal thoughts and opinions. I would also like to hear others feedback from members who use the site.

I think that the audio is definitely worth listening to and adds a lot more color around the meaning behind the highlighted points PucaTrade is trying to make. The two things that I will examine today are the Case Automation piece while briefly touching on the Foils for all members.

Case Automation Importance

I think that the summary of the total case resolutions and statistics is fairly misleading to the audience that don’t listen to the audio clip. It primarily sounds like PucaTrade is trying to reduce a tedious resource heavy process on their team. I think their approach is definitely an interesting one, but could actually be accommodated in a cheaper fashion on their current resources.

I understand PucaTrade’s position for several reasons. One their resources expertise could probably be put to better use on more innovative ideas/functions for the site rather than going through individual cases and responding. It is very time consuming, and if we broke down the case number with the following metrics provided with some additional flavor we will see how/why this is a good area for improvement.

We’ve had 173,000 total cases, 56,000 escalated to admin, 10,000 resolved by admin

If 56k cases were escalated, that means most likely those were read once by an admin. They also state that they have some sort of matrix for case resolution that is approximately 25 different choices of script that are then applied to the case. Let’s assume it takes 5 mins per case this way. That would give the team 280,000 mins or roughly 4,666 hours or about 195 days’ worth of work. Just to read the initial case, apply a script and respond. Now if we apply a minimum wage of $12.25 for San Francisco we look at a cost of around $57,000. They currently break this work across 5 people I believe. As you can see it’s probably a full time job for one person alone.

If we apply 10 mins for the last 10,000 cases that go to resolution by admin we come to an additional 69 days. In practicality I would think its probably a longer process due to the administration of resolving the case like sending out points and what not. Plus revisiting the case would take some time as well. I hope we can all agree that this is very costly to PucaTrade, and knowingly a very costly piece to the community funded site.

Case Automation Resolutions by the Numbers

PucaTrade believes that by removing this feature for all members, and only allowing the cases granting access to admin should be for paid tiered members will help solve the above dilemma either in cost or man hours. Not knowing the true reason we can only improvise with what I have shown above. I think that this feature fails to address additional data in their cases. This data may actually represent a different qualitative story that is really behind everything. Being an avid trader and breaking down my personal Case Data I would like to address some missed points.

First, my numbers are roughly close to PucaTrade’s overall numbers.

139	*Unique Trades*
5	*Cases*
3.60%	Percent of Trades Leading to Cases
352.0791367	Pucapoints of All Trades on Average

I have roughly traded with 139 unique members since joining in January. I have a free account on PucaTrade (I appreciate the ability to trade without being a paid member). I have had 5 unique situations that required a case. Of those cases I have opened 3 that required an admin. Two of those trades were outstanding for over a month. My average point per trade is 350 Pucapoints. I want to highlight this fact to address some Case Resolution Points.

What we don’t know from PucaTrade is whether the Cases are unique or if they are multiple cases with the same member. I have grouped my data in pivot tables to account for this information. This may actually lead to a lower percentage of real cases. Almost all my cases were under 200 points. In fact most trades that I have made upwards over 10,000 points players send me a mail thanking me for the condition of the cards or that they were received. Which by the way is a great message to get from fellow members.

So, the case and point is that I think PucaTrade is really trying to eliminate the low level case resolutions. Again, not having access to all the data there are several things I can only guess at based off personal conclusions. I think by going to this model they will alleviate a ton of case work for “The Humans” that they mention in the audio.

Personally I don’t like this approach as it will have an immediate impact on my current trading capabilities as an active member of the community. However, I think they make a good point about upgrading to the $5 a month uncommon feature due to the “Insurance” that PucaTrade provides. Also, noting that instead of paying USPS or whomever for 10 trades a month you just pay Puca instead and they will insure your trade.

They also mention Moral Hazard in regards to their guarantee. A few things that they do not mention is Moral Hazard really means that the person purchasing the insurance is knowingly going to misuse it. Hopefully for the majority of the community that will not be the case. There were several Facebook comments around people abusing trades, and I agree that someone could deface their own card. I was extremely disappointed in my most recent case that was escalated around a situation that was similar to one of those concerns. The best insurance as a member that you should do is actually take photos of your cards before you send to prove that they were not damaged prior to mailing. I have found this to be very helpful.

Case Resolution Approach

Personally, what I believe PucaTrade should do is shift their workload. What I mean by this is they did talk about hiring additional help with case resolution by ramping up or down members for their queue. This could actually be fixed with many creative ways.

Offshore it – Hire some resources outside the US at cheaper rates to do the work. You already have the hard part put together which is your resolution matrix. Also in context to San Francisco minimum wage get someone in another state for Remote work.
Ask members of the community that might want to help in this work. As you say it is a community funded business.

The two approaches above would maintain what is there today, possibly shift costs and effort from the current team, and hopefully maintain the same quality and service for all members. I am sure that other fellow community members have other outstanding great ideas.

Foil Flip Flop

The last thing I want to touch on before I wrap up is the move for Foils to be received by all members. Personally I do not think this is fair for the paid members that originally helped build the community as it is today. However, maybe they don’t care and it isn’t a big deal to them. Personally I wouldn’t like to pay for exclusivity only to be told it really didn’t mean much after all. I can understand the depreciation of time and it not maybe being as big of a perk, but shouldering something amongst others and then giving it away doesn’t seem fair. Unfortunately, I do not have a good solution to this, and obviously this was a PucaTrade decision which I will be delighted to use.

I hope those of you who read through the article enjoyed it. Feel free to leave comments. I am curious like I stated before to hear what other members have in mind.

MTG Reflection: Battle for Zendikar Pre-Release

A Tale of Two Local Game Shops

For those of you who have somehow missed the bus Battle for Zendikar’s Pre-Release, it was last weekend, and it was one hell of a time. There has been a lot of hate in the MTGFinance community going on, and claims like the only value will be the Expeditions. Today I would like to talk about a totally different value I found, and the BFZ Pre-Releases I attended over the weekend.

After playing Magic for some time there are a lot of things we forget, and of which I was reacquainted with this past weekend. First, we trekked out Saturday to play at a different shop. There are three things I want to point out of which I had forgotten about: One, not all shops are created equal. Two, not all decks are created equal. Keep these two things in mind. Thirdly, cracking packs is always fun. That last one isn’t as relevant.

New Game Shop

It’s always fun going to a new game shop. It was a nice change from the typical MTG shop I go to. I opened a ton of value you can see here on Twitter.

(https://twitter.com/MTGSpeculation/status/647822528505712640)

Now the thing I love most about the game is how things can be very unpredictable. Honestly, I thought my deck was going to be terrible. I thought there was no way in hell, my Red/Black non-ramp Eldrazi 5+ 6 drops deck was going to cut it. I had pretty much chalked the day up to: “Awesome I opened an Expedition, my blessings were counted for the day. Time to go home.” Kind of a day. I was proven wrong, and even more so realized how fun it is to play “BIG ASS CREATURES”.

Once, my Eldrazi’s were up in place they fed themselves. I also have a love hate relationship with Bane of Bala Ged. Bane is a lovely sight when you aren’t defending against him. Another card that really worked well for me was Conduit of Ruin. The conclusion I came to with Eldrazis, is if my opponent didn’t have any to match the might of my own, or the removal…they were toast! I also, never ran my Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger. I probably could have actually cast him every game too. As you can see this turned out to somehow be a killer deck.

The thing is I don’t actually know if the deck was really that good. I mean my friend, and I met in the Finals, split the packs and went home. However, it left something lingering with me. Did I actually build a good deck, or was it the level of players at the shop? I think I may have to go back a few times to find this out, but I do know that the shop doesn’t host weekly either. It was also a nice experience being able to help players learn about the new mechanics. I was asked what is exile anyway? In short I responded with, “Exile works like a second graveyard.” If anyone has a better explanation I would love to see it in comments.

My Game Shop

I feel like everyone has that game shop that they call home, at least the one they go to the most. Anyway Sunday went way better than planned on the cracked packs. I didn’t expect to get anything good because Saturday had gone so well. However, I was wrong. I pulled Ob Nixilis Reignited as my promo, and my buddy pulled Ulamog as his.

Today was not my decks day though. I ran a red/white ally deck. Surprisingly, I had a lot of cards for it. Two Lantern Scouts, Dragonmaster Outcast, Radiant Flames, Angelic Captain, and a ton of Allys. I also had a Retreat to Emeria, and loved hitting two for ones with my evolving wilds and cracking them during combat to spike all my troops. A lot of players did not see this coming. So, keep it a secret between us. Alas, my day ended going 1-1-2, and my buddies did go as well either.

Again, I put myself into a similar question. Was my deck really that bad or were there just better players here? Typically this game shop I consider to have decent players, which play a lot and know the mechanics of the game. They also invest a lot of their time outside of the shops learning as well as prepping for things like releases.

Can’t Anticipate Everything

Overall, thank you Wizards for a fun new Block. The Pre-Release was a great gaming experience, and nice change in format. I also, need to remember that even if you think your deck is going to be amazing or be terrible, you can’t fully anticipate the outcome of the day. With that we may never know if I build good decks, or was it the fact that everyone showed up with their “A” game. Enjoy the new Battle for Zendikar block, and if you didn’t catch the Pre-Release at least try and get out for the Release. I believe you will get amazing value with your time, even if the cards don’t end up being worth much.

MTG: Rally the Wallet

Last weekend we saw the emergence of a new style of deck called the 5-Color Rally by Matthew Tickal. This deck immediately made waves in the Magic Sphere as well as in the Finance community. Tickal’s deck is featured here on Star City Game’s website:

http://www.starcitygames.com/events/coverage/5color_rally_with_matthew_tick.html

Today, I would like to take a step back on how as a financier you can adequately prepare for spikes like these from a speculative play, and take advantage of the spike while it’s there. There are two main areas worth examining with a spike in price. The first is your position. The other one is executing on the position.

Building the Position

When we examine our position we either have the cards or we don’t. I would like to reiterate a strategy I touch on in the blog “The Big ‘D’” (http://mtgspeculation.com/2015/06/20/the-big-d/) last month outlining the best entry points, and building your position. The idea is you try to acquire most cards at a relatively low entry point. For example, I consider if you can get everything for less than $.50 per card to build your bulk position you are doing okay. Generally, I shoot to lower that number under $.25 per card, and I typically focus on rares. That is my first, criteria, the second one is that they are usually standard rares. I do this because this is what has been working for me so far.

If you aren’t buying the cards ahead of time don’t waste chasing the cards like I previously mentioned. However, if you do I thank you for generating demand for everyone to move their cards.

Execution

We can approach execution in two systematic ways. The first being, you know have a card that would of cost you more to acquire to play a new deck. This is an overall savings to you as the financier, and your collection has increased.

The second, is actually outing the card. Yesterday, we saw Rally the Ancestors go from 36 points to roughly over 100 points. On top of that the demand was well over 50+ cards. This provided a great outlet to move your cards. When I logged in this morning there were no non-foils being asked for and the price currently sits at 119.

Just using Pucatrade we have a little bit of a problem. My copies of Rally the Ancestor sky rocketed and now the demand isn’t there, what do I do? I suggest using this as a learning lesson, as I previously did with Mastery of the Unseen. Mastery of the Unseen had a similar trajectory, and I held out at missed value on my copies. I had expected the demand to stay there, and eventually it dried up. You need to move your cards if you aren’t going to when the hype begins, and unfortunately that window isn’t real big.

My suggestion is settling somewhere in the middle to edge out the competition. Not everyone can sit in front of a Pucatrade screen all day and refresh. Make up your mind on what you’re trying to achieve with your trade and speculation play, and stick to it. Don’t get greedy, or the demand will be eaten up by fellow players.

Good luck in Rallying your Wallet to the next level! If you haven’t tried pucatrade heres our referral link:

https://pucatrade.com/invite/gift/32840

I strongly recommend using Pucatrade as a tool in your MTG Financier wallet.

Value of Goals in Speculation

Setting Goals

A very important tool is the ability to set good goals. Fundamentally, setting goals helps adhere to a certain strategy or theory. For instance, there has been speculation that of all the tribes in the current Khans block Sultai will be have the highest ceiling when future blocks are taken into consideration. This would be cause to buy up cards or develop a deck around those colors in preparation for future releases. This is an example of a speculative play.

Now what does the above speculation have to do with goals? Well first and foremost goals help to establish a benchmark upon which progress can track success or failure. In the case of the Sultai Speculation it is believed that Sultai cards are currently undervalued relative to the other tribes. This would be tested by developing a price sheet for the different tribes to value their speculation as the future blocks are released, with the goal to yield the highest value of return. Ultimately all goals represent a metric which in my opinion is the single most important part of a goal. Once a goal is established it will also help provide focus, and feedback for speculation

Focus your mind’s eye

Something often overlooked when it comes to Magic in general is a focus. Players have decks for everything! I mean most players have a Commander, Modern, and Standard deck. That is three different areas a player needs to split their focus, and understand the different interactions and card mechanics. This involves a lot of play time and research into the history of Magic. This lends itself to a much unfocused player, and possibly weakening gameplay. Would it best to be a generalist and win some or be specialized and win more? I’m not saying that the above is bad, and many players have been around with the game for a long time. It’s all about the play style, and the more that is taken could potential reduce and inhibit a player.

With the focus around the Sultai clan as a slice of Khans it is possible to develop a greater understanding and positioning relative to other players in the Khans block. Rewards could be either financial or increased skill of in-depth card mechanics. I highly recommend writing down your goal and what your focus is on.

Reflective Feedback

Writing a goal down also creates a channel for reflective feedback. Feedback can be measured qualitatively or quantitatively. The closer to real time the more it will help navigate the current atmosphere by adjustment or staying true to the course.

Reflecting on the Sultai example here are some outlined feedback questions:

Time Line: Does the current timeline allow for adjustments to be made to game play or financial strategy? Is this an achievable goal, and is there ample time to measure skill or realize financial value?
Focus:
- Standard: Is Standard a narrow game type choice for Magic? Is even Standard too broad, and should it just be Standard Draft vs Constructed?
- Sultai: Is Sultai enough of a narrower focus? How is Sultai performing relative to its peers in current block? How does Sultai perform financially and in game format?
Valuation: Is there a financial gain or loss that can be accounted for? Are game mechanics and knowledge improved? Was time well spent or used?

Each item above can be measured. First and foremost is timeline. Timeline helps holding/buying/game play style through the releases of Fate Reforged and Dragons of Tarkir. A timeline also enhances goals by providing a life cycle and stages to mark their success. It’s very possible that Sultai really sucks during this time frame, but with a timeline it helps improve future decision making. Sultai may also be a very profitable clan to play in this block. Even though everything is hindsight there is something measurable, and analysis can be performed against the goal.

Focus will enable you to hone your skills and potentially become an expert at a local game shop or in the greater magic community. Analysis can be performed on trades, and can be catered to varying play styles. Is now a good time to buy or trade Sultai cards like Sidisi, Brood Tyrant? Who knows, but at the very least, there is focus, and research that has been a part of the trade decision. Even thoughtful hints, tips, or tricks. Another thing impacted will be a further understanding of the Sultai card mechanics. Does Sidisi, Brood Tyrant create a zombie token for each creature milled? Or is it per trigger no matter how many creatures? (Per trigger) These overlooked mechanics may help put a twist on value and on game play that has yet to be recognized creating an edge in a market.

Lastly, how can a goal be valued? One of the easiest values will be financial. Sidisi, Brood Tyrant purchased at today’s price of $3, and then pops back to eight dollars with Fate Reforged. How many copies were purchased and sold for a financial gain of $5? An often overlooked value is the knowledge gained on Sultai and gaming mechanics. Qualitative knowledge should increase about the game interactions and the Sultai clan. This could *possibly* provide an edge for the next year with Khans still in rotation. Maybe, the Sultai clan deck is pummeling all the other decks at the tournaments and allowing for financial capitalization.

At the end of the day no matter the timeline, feedback, and valuation there are many lines of speculation that can be identified and turned into goals. Ultimately it will improve game play and possibly lead to some financial gains.