A No Good Very Bad Sale Day and “Gleb”

Value of a Collection

I’ve been actively participating in the Magic the Gathering finance community for some time. There are multiple ways that individuals value their trades or collections for that matter. One of the key things to think about when getting rid of a collection is what the counter party uses for a value system. Most likely they will not have the same mindset as you. For example, I have yet to meet someone who buys large collections at TCG mid. It just does not happen, and maybe it is just a Minnesota thing or I am not using all avenues available to me. So keeping the above in mind I will continue to talk about an experience I had last week with a buyer named Gleb.

My Value

The way I value my collection is at TCG Mid, for rares and mythics. I also believe it can be a little inflated, and to keep a complete up to date list is a huge pain. I literally have an excel spreadsheet with every card that’s rare or better that I have collected. This spreadsheet does not include rares from older formats like stronghold, even though I have those cards. It also does not contain other cards of value like any foils aside again from rares and mythics. Lastly, it does not contain non bulk commons that are valuable like Spell Pierce.

Keeping everything in mind my collection contains roughly 900+ unique cards, and roughly 3,000 rares and mythics. The average worth of those cards, not weighted mind you is roughly $2, and that average doesn’t include the foil pricing. Again, this is all TCG Mid.

Here was/is the ad I placed on craigslist.

http://minneapolis.craigslist.org/hnp/clt/5086773740.html

I wanted to start at $6250 to only attract the correct buyers. The other reason, why I even considered selling my collection, granted I DO NOT plan to stop playing, is to help pay for my upcoming wedding.

Selling, Trading and Ebay Pricing

Actively selling and trading a lot over the years, I look at moving this collection as two fold. One I would like to maximize what I can get, and two I know I will have to take a discount. The counterparty needs to have a perceived value on their end to be enticed to buy the collection. Again, I wanted to attract the correct types of buyers.

With that said I think I learned a very valuable lesson trying to move my collection. DO NOT ever contact people that have “I buy your collections of MTG cards” or “I pay the most for MTG cards” unless you need to fire sale. I spent about two weeks talking to several buyers trying to work stuff out.

It is an extremely painful process to be honest. You already know someone is going to try and nickel and dime you on everything. They want to feel better about their purchase, I get it…again I said I planned on selling at somewhat of a discount. .

One of the buyers I contacted lived quite a ways away and looked very promising at first. I buy and sell cards all the time on ebay so I am pretty versed with the pricing and discounts there. I begin talking to this guy who’s a few hours outside of the twin cities that says he buys at Ebay pricing. Cool, I get it and he is transparent on how he values collections. Knowing that he’s at a decent discount to TCG Mid, I figure okay take about 25% off the top. I can deal with that, because I think 20% is fair if the person isn’t going to go and turn around selling everything right away. He did tell me that he was a collector. Granted I really don’t believe anyone on craigslist.

I continue to talk with him. He then asks for some of my top worth cards. I shoot him a few fetchlands and Angus Mackenzie. I want to see where he comes in. He tells me he takes a two week average of pricing, shoots me a fetchland that is tcg mid $15, and tells me its $8 on Ebay.

Okay, hold on a minute. I sell fetchs on Ebay, and definitely sell them for more. If you didn’t know this about Ebay you can actually view recently sold cards. To do this you search your card, example wooded foothills. Then on the left column you scroll down and click the show only completed listings.

At the time of writing this you can see several wooded foothills sell above $8.

I quickly responded with a buy it now that had sold for $15 on a wooded foothill. I said that his pricing wasn’t fair, and that I definitely understood his pricing metric. However, the problem was he left way too much leeway in it to make the pricing more of an opinion.

Last helpful hint is that there is a website that helps calculate an average price on Ebay. I find it extremely useful, and hope that you can as well.

http://www.thepricegeek.com/

On to the next buyer!

Gleb and Ettiquette

Recently Travis Allan @Wizardbumpin wrote an article for MTGprice on etiquette. I was extremely satisfied that other members of the community find this to be extremely pertinent to playing MTG as well as conducting sales and trades. I also want to reemphasize that this is very important, and that you should always try and not be a “Gleb”.

In walks Gleb, and in reality it started off as a very promising email string. Gleb another local buyer to the Twin Cities, I had contacted through craigslist. He asked me what warranted such a high price tag, and I presumably said to keep the real players interested and weed out the nonsense. He asked for my rares/mythics and I sent him my entire sheet. This guy was definitely interested in the collection, and wanted to know when we could meet.

First, off I have a rather large collection as stated, and I was selling everything. I did not want to parse stuff out because I find that you can make better margins when getting rid of your own collection. From a buyers perspective you typically don’t take everything because it means more work, but it depends on the person. Anyway I tell Gleb that he can come over to my humble adobe to check the cards out. He refused and offered a local Starbucks. I agreed understanding that maybe I am some creep from his perspective, and a public area is usually the best. My concern again was the size of my collection.

I had asked what I need to bring to get to an offer for everything. He replied with everything I bring. Okay, so I was excited the night before meeting this guy, thinking this is going to go great and that I will get a little extra cash for my wedding. It took me roughly over an hour to pack my little car full of magic cards. However, I knew it was worth it because I know soon these will all be Glebs. Man was I ever wrong.

As I got to Starbucks he texted me saying he was already there. Cool, I wasn’t going to bring all the cards in so I just walked in proceeding to look for him. I figured he would be standing near the line or door waiting to introduce himself. Wrong again. He was sitting rather very calm and collected sipping on a frappe in the middle of starbucks with a backpack and his laptop unfolded. Great…he didn’t even wait for me or offer if I wanted to get something. I actually became very uncomfortable around Gleb, and this isn’t something typical of an extrovert who does consulting. He had a very weird vibe.

Anyway I told Gleb that my collection was outside in my car, and that I would rather not bring everything in. I have everything extremely organized and laid out very efficiently, and figured this could go smooth at least. As I begin to walk outside calm collected Gleb with his frappe follows me out. I proceed to unlock my car, open all the doors, and the trunk to showcase the MTG goods. This is where I really start to get annoyed about his etiquette.

He immediately starts opening my boxes and pulling all my cards out that were neatly organized before I can explain each box. Maybe I am a little anal, but I like stuff orderly so I can find it, and it helps me keep inventory. He immediately starts saying bulk, bulk, bulk, and starts laying into the boxes. He eventually makes it to one that I have some foils and says well these are all bulk as well. I said, I haven’t parsed any foils out and that there’s a foil wooded foothills along with Whisperwood in there.

Now, the horror ensues, as he drops all the foils on the pavement like a klutz. Then proceeds to say that he hadn’t seen any rares. I quickly respond with they are in my backpack up front, and that I was trying to explain the collection to him before he started tearing through everything. He quickly tells me to grab the backpack and head in to price the collection.

Dear god sir, I sent you the list! You had all week to price it out, I had no patience to wait around two hours to get nickeled and dimed especially after not offering me a Frappe! However, the best part was the proceeding statement he makes while walking to the door. “For the record for six thousand cash there better be twenty thousand dollars’ worth of value.” I go, ah what. This completely blindsided me based off our proceeding weeks email discussion, and text messaging. Why in god’s name would this tool waste my time like that? He’s telling me that he pays 25% value. There is no way I am going to waste my time with this shark. It would have been much better if he had been wearing the “Left Shark” costume from the Super bowl because that would of probably made for a better story.

I never made it back in to Starbucks to get my Frappe. I immediately told Gleb that I do not think things will work out, shook his hand, made sure he didn’t jack any of my foils he dropped on the ground, and closed up shop. I was fuming the whole way home for wasting time with this guy. However, I figured it would at least make for a good blog, as I was trying to find the good in what went down.

Moral of the story, DO NOT work with idiot buy listers on craigslist, they are sharks. Also, anyone in Minnesota, beware of Gleb, and for everyone else, please don’t be a “Gleb” and use proper etiquette.

Welcome to the Other Side of the Coin

In a small velvet bag alongside my EDH deck boxes, there lies a scratched brass coin, about the size of a quarter, with a smooth and narrow edge that glints a bit when it flips through the air. At first glance it seems undeserving of such an exalted position, being none too flashy and not even a coin you could spend in a vending machine. But sometimes coins mean more than what they’re worth, and sometimes cards mean more than what they do.

This is my all-time favorite coin. A goblin coin. The almighty dollar of Krenko, Mob Boss.

On its heads side, Krenko’s face in profile. Fleshy bulb of a nose protruding to the right; reaching left, the oversized mockery of an elvish ear. A single piggy eye, thick sausage lips, canine teeth bared in a sneer. He’s the boss, he KNOWS he’s the boss, and his goblin mob had better recognize.

On its tails side… a butt.

Far less grandiose, even crude. Nothing fancy, just the outline of buttocks with gangly legs dangling down. This is because goblins are crude, and butts are funny. If you call heads on this coin and lose, it literally moons your ill-fortune. Plus, I’ve found that people love to call “butts” when I toss it. I mean, they LOVE it. There’s goblin impulse in all of us, apparently.

As you may already know, most coin-flip cards in Magic’s history are goblin-related, including the amazing “flip two and ignore one” legendary artifact called Krark’s Thumb. Lots of those cards found a home with Krenko. But that’s only about half of what makes this coin my favorite. For the other half, let’s take a look at some flavor text.

That’s right. Flavor text. We’re going full Vorthos on this one. This little gem comes right off of Krenko himself.

“He displays a perverse charisma fueled by avarice. Highly dangerous. Recommend civil sanctions.” -Agmand Sarv, Azorius hussar

Fueled by avarice.

Avarice is greed for wealth. A lot of the time, that means a greed for coin.

The guy talking in this flavor text is an Azorius hussar, a blue-white knight/policeman in the ecumenopolis (city-world) that we all know and love: Ravnica.

Ravnica’s kind of like the New York of the Multiverse, the biggest city anyone has seen or can name, a skyline the size of a plane. If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere. You might knock Krenko’s methods, but it’s safe to say, he’s made it. That’s why other goblins rally around him; that’s why the police say he’s “highly dangerous.” And that’s why he’s rolling in the dough.

You know he’s rolling in the dough because his followers are motivated by money too. He finds the money he needs to pay his mob, gets ’em paid, attracts more 1/1 scrubs who wanna make it big in Ravnica just like he did. And the cycle continues.

He finds so many supporters that they double every turn. HE finds them. No littering matrons. No endless warrens to empty a la Time Spiral. This is a pyramid scheme, and our man Krenko sits atop its pinnacle, turning your average Foundry Street Denizen‘s daily routine into “Get Rich or Die Tryin’.” That “perverse charisma”? It takes a lot of legwork.

And who’s the guy telling us all about him? Some random court hussar.

I think that’s the part of all this I love the best. Krenko doesn’t feel the need to justify himself. Explaining things is the guilds’ job, and they’re not even very good at it. He’s a one-color Warrior in a two-color world. If anyone has a problem with that, he’ll whack ’em. Towering over other Goblins at 3/3, born into a world defined by guilds, Krenko’s individual personality looms larger than life.

Krenko’s flavor text might’ve been a story that Wizards told, but the coin shows an extrapolation I made. Magic is the game I love best, not just because it’s mechanically interesting (though it IS), but because of the stories any player can tell with it. Magic becomes the game that you – the player! – most want it to be.

My name is Emily, and this is the story I’ve told of a streetwise young tough named Krenko. I tell you this story so you can get a sense of me, of what kind of player I am. I’d love to hear your stories in return.

Tune in every Wednesday afternoon for The Other Side of the Coin, brimming with flavor text and narratives galore. There might even be some price specs and deck techs along the way. We’ll be diving right into the thick of things, with a snippet of flavor text so recognizable that R&D felt compelled to make a card out of it. Leave your guesses below!

Just remember: Sometimes coins mean more than what they’re worth. Sometimes cards mean more than what they do.

See you guys next time.

The Big “D”

Decision Making

Pricing information, opinions, and strategies are quite abundant these days in the Magic the Gathering Finance community. However, one of the least talked about things is actually making a decision. That decision could be anything from selling a collection, making a trade at a local gameshop, or speculating on cards like Tarmogoyf. Personally, I believe the recent #goyfgate shenanigans were great for MTG as a whole. It only led to a broader reach beyond the traditional MTG community, and personally I would have picked the card as well. Again, the pick of the Tarmogoyf was a big decision that ultimately led to a huge reaction, and not all decisions create equal reactions.

A sold collection

I recently read an article by a player talking about how they were sick of the sky rocketing prices on MTG cards, and that it’s led to people picking value cards over actually playing the game. I found this article to really resonate with me because this is something that has crossed my mind a few times. I truly believe that this decision comes down to the individual’s opinion, but should be a well thought out one. One of the reasons I say this is sometimes in the Finance community we overlook the value of magic outside of the money aspect. One of the reasons I continue to hold onto my collection isn’t just a financial piece, it has to do with a broader connected community and set of memories I have developed. I began playing when Mercadian Masques came out, and at that time I wasn’t even a teenager. Eventually this evolved to becoming more serious when the Mirrodin Block came out. The game also transformed into a very meaningful social event for my friends and me.

The one thing I would like to caution when making this decision comes from a personal experience. I got a Super Nintendo in the early 90’s, and I eventually sold it to Gamestop to get a Gameboy color. To this day I constantly regret ever getting rid of it, because of all my memories of gaming with family and friends. I truly believe that one really needs to take things like this into consideration when cleaning out your collection. It shouldn’t just be about the money, you can always make more. You may never be able to get your entire collection back. I know I wouldn’t be able to.

Trading

Trading is really an art form. Most of the times you hear about people complaining about sharks, or everyone trying to make a small margin on a trade to be the one coming out ahead. In reality, this to me is mostly the problem when people are both informed about a value of the card. In today’s world where a person whips out a smart phone and knows the prices right away is actually quite boring. Otherwise the person isn’t just a shark they are just another d, or a dick. The real thing about trading this way is correctly speculating on a card. You are taking an opinionated view of the market and most likely will not capture the value today. You should look at it as more of an investment in the game and financially. How can you protect your assets with hedging?

The other thing about trading is the fact it’s really about sales. How do you sell yourself or make others feel comfortable trading with you? If you become the go to person for trades you are way more likely to find the value you are looking for. Taking a short term hit on trades only to come out better in the long run helps a ton. Especially if you believe yourself to be informed, and know that there are cards falling out of rotation or a meta-game that no longer favors a specific set of cards. The even trade or taking less on a trade may actually put you ahead in the long run. Back in January I traded my Master of the Waves, Sidisi Brood Tyrant, Wingmate Roc and Ajani Mentor of Heroes (Chinese) for a Spellskite and Sword of Feast and Famine. I think looking back today even though I gave up a lot of value then I came out ahead today. The cards I traded away lost value while the ones I received have only increased.

Speculation

Like the trade in the last paragraph that was purely speculation. However, being informed and participating in the MTG community a person can increase the odds in their favor. Sometimes not making the decision to trade, buy a box, or play in the local gameshops FNM in and of itself is the best decision to make. If we look at this decision to not participate from a financial view, holding cash is sometimes the best thing to do! Your cash is only going to depreciate against inflation, but most likely this will be a moot point because you will have already spent your money somewhere else.

A lot of the time when we make decisions we need to tune into our opportunity costs. What is the real loss I am facing with my time or dollars by making one decision versus another? Earlier this week I read another article talking about indexing. How to properly acquire MTG cards to smooth out your risk and capture a spike in price. This is one of the practices I employ. I DO NOT chase cards, and neither should you. One this is a terrible strategy, and you will most likely overpay. Two a lot of the times it’s just luck. Three you can’t always move 100 copies of something. This week I was able to offload some cards outlined here on Pucatrade by employing this strategy. Below is the acquired costs including shipping per copy, and then what I made in terms of pucapoints.

Card	Points	Cost
Hythonia the Cruel	66	42
Hythonia the Cruel	66	42
Hythonia the Cruel	66	42
Hythonia the Cruel	66	42
Medomai the Ageless	74	25
Soul of Ravnica	76	25
Soul of Ravnica	76	25
Soul of Ravnica	76	25
Soul of Ravnica	76	26
Ghastly Conscription	78	32
Ghastly Conscription	78	32
Soul of Zendikar	82	25
Soul of Zendikar	82	25
Soul of Zendikar	82	25
Soul of Shandalar	89	25
Soul of Shandalar	89	25
Soul of Shandalar	89	25
	1311	508
Shipping		268

Sum	1311	776

Difference		535

Pucatrade is definitely a nice source to move your product, however again I don’t think moving 100 copies of something unless it’s a staple. Typically when I employ this strategy of diversifying, I get at least 8 cards. One set for myself as a collector, and then another set to trade out. It’s important to have a diverse collection for other players when showcasing what’s available for trade.

There are many aspects in MTG that employ strategic decision making like selling a collection, trading, and speculating. Along with those and the many others that are out there the idea is to be conscious of the decisions you make because they do have a financial impact, opportunity cost, and drive many of the memories that got us into Magic in the first place.

Limited Landscape

Limited Landscape

With all the excitement surrounding the Dragons of Tarkir release and the resultant flurry of set reviews and podcasts we have figured a few things out about the new set. However, in terms of limited there are always additional facets of the format to analyze. Questions remain about the relative power level of each color and clan, the playability of a few build-around-me cards, and how we should color our perception of the format based on Fate Reforged. Simply playing the set is often the best way to answer these questions. But having spent some time with Fate Reforged we may be better equipped, and may in fact be better served, to take another look.

Overview

Both the influx of new cards and the exodus of Khans of Tarkir have led to an interesting position for Fate Reforged in the format. In the previous format, the set felt top heavy and lacked truly playable cards in the bottom half of each pack. It wasn’t infrequent to open packs with only 2-3 playables. Since the Fate Reforged packs were cracked first in the KTK format most of these playables would dry up by picks 4-5. This generally made it hard to make meaningful reads on the cards being passed to you early and the fact that many players in a pod would be married to their first pick made feeling out the format a bit more unintuitive.

Now with Fate Reforged being opened as the final pack in the current draft format we will see a whole new side to the set. After a dozen drafts I’ve found myself picking up high priority rares around picks 5-6 and getting high priority commons at a stage in the draft that would’ve been impossible in the FTR-KTK-KTK format. For example, cards like Jeskai Infiltrator and many great FTR rares are being passed multiple times. The question to ask yourself is how can I capitalize on this as a drafter?

Make the correct reads. This format is much easier to read accurately than the two previous and the benefits of doing so are far greater. Fifth pick Sage Eye Avengers and his ilk were fantasies in the past and a reality now.

The last general tenet of DTK-DTK-FTR drafting I would pass on is to remember that there are between 3-6 cards, all of which are rare and one being mythic, per clan that incentivize staying in their respective two color combination. This means you can very easily go with any pairing you please so long as you consider the consequences it could have on a synergy driven deck. So when you see an Atarka’s Command first pick first pack and don’t know whether or not to take it over a great mono color card, remember you don’t have to commit to a clan and the rewards can be great for staying open.

Fate Reforged Card Analysis

Despite the headline I won’t be going through each card and grading it or anything like that. I’ll be outlining a few commons that I believe will either have risen or fallen given the change in format. By no means will this list be indicative of what I believe to be the best commons in FTR necessarily.

Goblin Heelcutter:

This was my favorite FTR common in the previous format and I don’t see myself changing my tune anytime soon. Heelcutter does things you’d expect from an uncommon and is a card you find yourself counting as a live draw for lethal. My favorite common got even better, if you find yourself in Kolaghan colors this is the card you want to see most next to Pyrotechnics, excluding rares, in many cases. This card absolutely punishes decks that want to exploit and go for value. Dashing out Heelcutter early can provide enough pressure to force opponents to play sub-optimally to stay out of burn range.

Jeskai Sage:

There has been a lot said about Palace Familiar and all of those things can be said about Jeskai Sage. The real power here is that while Palace Familiar gives you an exploit value card and something to stop all the X/1s in the format, Jeskai Sage can trade up into X/2s while providing the same level of value. You’ll often find yourself hoping to find 2-3 Jeskai Sages from your FTR pack.

Return to the Earth:

This card was a decent side board option in the previous format, but with the addition of DTK this card is now (mostly due to the weakness of green) a true main deck option. Return to the Earth also provides green with a card to look for in their FTR pack where green is noticeably lacking playables. It’s not the most exciting card but has certainly risen in value.

Typhoid Rats:

A Limited staple for years Rats is finding itself positioned better in this format where it can be exploited for value and cards like Tail Slash give deathtouch creatures added levels of flexibility. DTK isn’t a set that features many “go wide” strategies whereas Khans featured cards like Ponyback Brigade, Hordling Outburst, and Take Up Arms.

Sandsteppe Outcast:

No surprises here, Outcast is still fantastic although white is markedly weaker in DTK than it was in Khans. To this point, it is fairly common to take Sandblast over Outcast in this format where white is depending on both Green and Blue, most commonly, to provide removal.

Notably improved Uncommons. This is a short list of a couple uncommons that benefitted greatly from synergies in DTK.

Humble Defector:

This is a card that was very strong in the previous format but has a couple cute synergies in the new set. The primary one being with Swift Warkite, Warkite may already be the strongest of the uncommon dragon cycle in DTK. But bringing back Humble Defector, drawing two cards for free, and netting a 4/4 flyer + a 2/1 with upside is a huge game. If you end up with a Warkite or two keep an eye out for this card.

Merciless Executioner:

This one is a given. It had the exploit mechanic before it was actually introduced, given that this format doesn’t feature “go wide” strategies but does feature tons of on death value creatures Executioner can do some disgusting things.

Fearsome Awakening:

Fearsome Awakening is a card that generally wheels and in certain decks has the potential to be insane. Coupled with a couple Gurmag Drowner you can toss away morph dragons and bring them out buffed the following turn. It makes cards like Icefall Regent borderline unbeatable and makes the uncommon cycle of morph dragons much more playable. I wouldn’t take it very early but it will normally be available in the back half of FTR packs where there is a noticeable lack of playables for most archetypes.

Temporal Trespass

It is April 28 and we are in the thick of Dragons of Tarkir as the dominant set. By dominant, I mean that when you go to buy a pack, or collect your winnings from an event, this is the set you’re most likely to choose. I’ve enjoyed DTK so far. It’s an excellent set. It has made for an exciting draft setting, and an equally spicy standard environment. My concern, however, is time.

Dragons of Tarkir was released on March 27th, a short two months after the release of the previous set, Fate Reforged. DTK will continue to be the dominant set until Magic Origins on July 17. The reason for Dragons’ early release is twofold; primarily, the Tarkir block sets were released as large-small-large, and an earlier release allows for more time with a large set before the release of the following set. The second reason is the more problematic of the two and that is the release of Modern Masters 2015 filling the May release slot normally filled by a block’s third set.

Despite the high likelihood that MM2015 will be an excellent set, its release will very likely distract from the current dominant set. Who is going to want to draft DTK when you could be drafting MM2015 instead? Players’ attention will be split, especially those who play both standard and modern. So, while on paper it feels like we get extra time with DTK, in practice, we will likely be getting a less-than-satisfactory amount of time with it.

Normally, this wouldn’t be a problem, as the third set of a block is normally small, and players are eager to move on to the next set. However, because of the restructuring of the release paradigm, DTK will continue to be an important part of standard even after Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged rotate out. My guess is that by the time Origins comes out, if players haven’t completed the playsets they meant to while they were distracted by Modern Masters, they’ll be looking to acquire them after the fact. I can’t say for sure whether that makes investing in DTK a good idea or not, but from my experience with the set thus far, it has a wide range of cards that will offer a variety of exciting builds when combined with the upcoming sets.

While I keep opening prize packs and draft packs, hoping for more of the chase mythics like Deathmist Raptors or Dragonlord Atarkas, or even solid rares like Thunderbreak Regent, I can’t help but think of the level of demand for these cards when the packs are no longer being opened as widely. This notion might also be reinforced by several of my LGS’s decisions to stop breaking down boxes, limiting the immediately available supply immensely. Because of this, I imagine people will be looking to online sellers or PucaTrade. So, keep this in mind when considering trading your DTK rares.

Game Day Full of Wealth

Two weeks ago I was able to participate in my local game shop’s (LGS) game day on Saturday. I was able to sneak away for a few hours to test out my current standard deck I had thrown together about 20 minutes before the event. It was a deconstruction of my primarily Theros block deck, and rotating in my Khans of Tarkir block cards. For the record I do not play standard often, but when I do I make stuff happen.

My deck originally was G/W/B/U, and a freaking grind. The previous game day I had a round that only lasted one match! Half my deck was planeswalkers. I had missed the top eight on a misplay of mana tapping (Noob move). An unfortunate learning pain, which I have since learned to slow down on my turn. One of the cards that I really enjoy playing that most people don’t know what to do with is Villainous Wealth, so I obviously kept this card in for last weekend. Like I said, I make stuff happen.

Going into my first round last weekend, I was extremely nervous. Like I said I don’t play a lot of standard, but still want to have a unique competitive home brew. The first round was rather interesting, and as it turned out seemed to be a theme for the night. The rounds were rather slow, I was like where the eff are the burn decks? I thought I wouldn’t be able to play anything on the ground without it getting roasted!

After getting a few land drops out I realized this first round was rather slow, and I knew my deck would be able to keep up. The first round player was Ojutai Control splashing Black for Crux of Fate and Dragonlord Silumgar. Well, the deck I had put together was a U/B/G control/mirror deck. I must say I love Clever Impersonator. This card made my day several times. My plan was to be general enough to play around all decks and still have fun. I surprisingly ended up crushing him 2-0. My favorite part of the game was that I played Villainous Wealth for eight!!! It was hilarious and they were like seriously. Playing my opponent’s own Dig Through Times, Dragonlord Ojutais, and planeswalkers against him pretty much made him cry. It was quite a round of fun counter magic, and one I will remember for the lasting impact it made on me.

Now, the other three rounds that day did not go so hot. Pretty much all the rest of the rounds I went 1-2. I played against a Temur Combo, which I should have beat except I made several misplays (More Noob Moves). I played a U/R burn control deck, and one other. Overall it was a great experience, and I was glad I was able to participate. I really wish I could have got one of those Thunderbreak Regent cards.

What I learned to look out for from a card perspective to add to any collection or pick up for the U/B control decks are definitely Dragonlord Silumgar’s, Clever Impersonators, and for the offbeat fun wins Villainous Wealth cards. I believe as the control player’s shift they will lean towards the U/B control for current standard play.

Conjured Currency Arbitrage

Recently, I have read several articles by people and their ability to pick up magic cards at steep discount in their travels. Today my plan is to show you how you can deliver big returns by using the power of the dollar in your favor no matter where you are. You can even take out the flight cost.

One thing Magic Financiers tend to overlook is how opaque the magic market actually is. Everything is about information, and when it comes to speculation you sure as hell better be informed. I think being informed is the easy part,

the difficult part is getting that information immediately when trying to execute a trade or a decision regarding your cards. There are certain standards everyone tends to use. I’m pretty sure I’ve only traded with one person at my local game shop (lgs) who did not use tcgplayer mid. Personally I prefer this because it’s more fun to trade.

When it comes to trading what really matters is economies of scale. According to Wikipedia: In microeconomics, economies of scale are the cost advantages that enterprises obtain due to size, output, or scale of operation, with cost per unit of output generally decreasing with increasing scale as fixed costs are spread out over more units of output. As an individual we each have our own markets that we participate in. Some examples would include your LGS, Ebay, PucaTrade. How do you move your cards and at what cost? Different markets have a different cost.

So, how does one take advantage of information? I’m going to show you how to take full advantage of your hard earned US Dollar. Just like a magic card your dollar is a commodity, and it holds a relative value. The differences of these items, and in which market can cause for a large spread in pricing. Think of a magic card as a derivative, its price is floating due to supply and demand. The same thing happens with your dollar relative to other currencies like the Yen. This creates arbitrage opportunities.

At the time of writing your one USD is worth 119.63 Yen. The next step is to find Japanese stores who ship overseas and sell online. The one I use for this example is Hareruyamtg. Next, you need to compare apples to apples. In my calculations I take the relative cost in local yen of the same MTG cards in English. Yes, we could do this for Japanese cards if we wanted. Knowing each of the legs of the calculation what we will come out with is a USD price on an English card. In my example I use MTGprice.com as my pricing data (I like an index for pricing).

After all my calculations I was able to identify five out of 12 cards that were great opportunities to build in paper value if purchased today. If executed correctly a real return with a bang for your buck. Those cards were End Hostilities, Clever Impersonator, Hardened Scales, Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker, and everyone’s favorite Siege Rhino. Of the five I would probably purchase Clever Impersonator, Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker, and Siege Rhino if I was to execute the trade today because they had the best margin.

Card Name	MTG Price USD	Hareruyamtg (JPY)	Hare (USD Conversion)	Difference
End Hostilities (Eng)	1.7	200	1.671821449	0.028178551
Ashcloud Phoenix (Eng)	3.93	700	5.851375073	-1.92137507
Clever Impersonator (Eng)	3.27	300	2.507732174	0.762267826
Hardened Scales (Eng)	0.91	60	0.501546435	0.408453565
Sarkhan, the Dragon Speaker (Eng)	11.73	1300	10.86683942	0.863160578
Siege Rhino (Eng)	8.39	800	6.687285798	1.702714202
Sorin, Solemn Visitor (Eng)	13.6	1700	14.21048232	-0.61048232
Bloodstained Mire (Eng)	9.61	1300	10.86683942	-1.25683942
Flooded Strand (Eng)	15.01	1800	15.04639305	-0.03639305
Polluted Delta (Eng)	14.16	1800	15.04639305	-0.88639305
Windswept Heath (Eng)	11.01	1400	11.70275015	-0.69275015
Wooded Foothills (Eng)	10.67	1500	12.53866087	-1.86866087

What about shipping costs you ask? I even calculated all of those as well. Surprisingly at a per card basis it’s really not that expensive. Again doing all the calculations and conversions I came out at an added cost of $.15 USD at the high end and obviously going back to the economy of scale $.05 per card.

There is definitely arbitrage opportunity here for a trader to create a lot of value for themselves. Yes, arbitrage is a guaranteed return, it would all come down to your execution. Do you have the economies of scale to do the transaction, and do you have enough outlets to move your product? Only you can answer that question for yourself.

Hopefully you have enjoyed my article, please feel free to contact me with questions and feel free to provide comments.

Value of Goals in Speculation

Setting Goals

A very important tool is the ability to set good goals. Fundamentally, setting goals helps adhere to a certain strategy or theory. For instance, there has been speculation that of all the tribes in the current Khans block Sultai will be have the highest ceiling when future blocks are taken into consideration. This would be cause to buy up cards or develop a deck around those colors in preparation for future releases. This is an example of a speculative play.

Now what does the above speculation have to do with goals? Well first and foremost goals help to establish a benchmark upon which progress can track success or failure. In the case of the Sultai Speculation it is believed that Sultai cards are currently undervalued relative to the other tribes. This would be tested by developing a price sheet for the different tribes to value their speculation as the future blocks are released, with the goal to yield the highest value of return. Ultimately all goals represent a metric which in my opinion is the single most important part of a goal. Once a goal is established it will also help provide focus, and feedback for speculation

Focus your mind’s eye

Something often overlooked when it comes to Magic in general is a focus. Players have decks for everything! I mean most players have a Commander, Modern, and Standard deck. That is three different areas a player needs to split their focus, and understand the different interactions and card mechanics. This involves a lot of play time and research into the history of Magic. This lends itself to a much unfocused player, and possibly weakening gameplay. Would it best to be a generalist and win some or be specialized and win more? I’m not saying that the above is bad, and many players have been around with the game for a long time. It’s all about the play style, and the more that is taken could potential reduce and inhibit a player.

With the focus around the Sultai clan as a slice of Khans it is possible to develop a greater understanding and positioning relative to other players in the Khans block. Rewards could be either financial or increased skill of in-depth card mechanics. I highly recommend writing down your goal and what your focus is on.

Reflective Feedback

Writing a goal down also creates a channel for reflective feedback. Feedback can be measured qualitatively or quantitatively. The closer to real time the more it will help navigate the current atmosphere by adjustment or staying true to the course.

Reflecting on the Sultai example here are some outlined feedback questions:

Time Line: Does the current timeline allow for adjustments to be made to game play or financial strategy? Is this an achievable goal, and is there ample time to measure skill or realize financial value?
Focus:
- Standard: Is Standard a narrow game type choice for Magic? Is even Standard too broad, and should it just be Standard Draft vs Constructed?
- Sultai: Is Sultai enough of a narrower focus? How is Sultai performing relative to its peers in current block? How does Sultai perform financially and in game format?
Valuation: Is there a financial gain or loss that can be accounted for? Are game mechanics and knowledge improved? Was time well spent or used?

Each item above can be measured. First and foremost is timeline. Timeline helps holding/buying/game play style through the releases of Fate Reforged and Dragons of Tarkir. A timeline also enhances goals by providing a life cycle and stages to mark their success. It’s very possible that Sultai really sucks during this time frame, but with a timeline it helps improve future decision making. Sultai may also be a very profitable clan to play in this block. Even though everything is hindsight there is something measurable, and analysis can be performed against the goal.

Focus will enable you to hone your skills and potentially become an expert at a local game shop or in the greater magic community. Analysis can be performed on trades, and can be catered to varying play styles. Is now a good time to buy or trade Sultai cards like Sidisi, Brood Tyrant? Who knows, but at the very least, there is focus, and research that has been a part of the trade decision. Even thoughtful hints, tips, or tricks. Another thing impacted will be a further understanding of the Sultai card mechanics. Does Sidisi, Brood Tyrant create a zombie token for each creature milled? Or is it per trigger no matter how many creatures? (Per trigger) These overlooked mechanics may help put a twist on value and on game play that has yet to be recognized creating an edge in a market.

Lastly, how can a goal be valued? One of the easiest values will be financial. Sidisi, Brood Tyrant purchased at today’s price of $3, and then pops back to eight dollars with Fate Reforged. How many copies were purchased and sold for a financial gain of $5? An often overlooked value is the knowledge gained on Sultai and gaming mechanics. Qualitative knowledge should increase about the game interactions and the Sultai clan. This could *possibly* provide an edge for the next year with Khans still in rotation. Maybe, the Sultai clan deck is pummeling all the other decks at the tournaments and allowing for financial capitalization.

At the end of the day no matter the timeline, feedback, and valuation there are many lines of speculation that can be identified and turned into goals. Ultimately it will improve game play and possibly lead to some financial gains.

MTGSpeculation

The place for Magic the Gathering Speculators